Tivan (ASX: TVN) is a diversified critical minerals exploration and development company headquartered in Darwin, Northern Territory, Australia. Originally established in 1970 and listed on the ASX as TNG, the company was rebranded to Tivan in January 2023 following shareholder approval. Its strategic vision centres on advancing critical minerals projects across northern Australia and Timor-Leste to support global energy transition supply chains, particularly in Asian markets.

Business Segments & Field of Activity

Tivan operates as a single reportable segment — mineral exploration and evaluation — but manages a diverse multi-project portfolio spanning Western Australia, the Northern Territory, and Timor-Leste.

Project	Location	Commodity Focus	Stage
Speewah Fluorite	East Kimberley, WA	Fluorite (CaF₂)	Near-term development; FID targeted 2026
Speewah Vanadium	East Kimberley, WA	Vanadium–Titanium–Iron	Advanced evaluation
Molyhil	~220 km NE of Alice Springs, NT	Tungsten–Molybdenum	Brownfield development
Sandover Fluorite	~8 km from Sandover AI, NT	Fluorite	Exploration
Sandover AI	~100 km N of Alice Springs, NT	Critical minerals / pegmatites	Exploration over 8,000 km²
Turiscai	40 km S of Dili, Timor-Leste	Copper–Gold	Early-stage exploration
Baucau & Ossu	Timor-Leste	Copper–Cobalt	Early-stage, JV with Murak Rai Timor

The Speewah Fluorite Project is Tivan's flagship near-term asset, described as Australia's only Tier 1 Fluorite project, located ~100 km south of the port of Wyndham and ~110 km southwest of Kununurra. Fluorine was recently added to Australia's Critical Minerals List, significantly enhancing the project's strategic value.

Strategic initiatives

Tivan's strategy is built around three pillars: rapid project advancement, Asian supply chain integration, and joint venture partnerships.

· Speewah FID (Final Investment Decision): Tivan is targeting an FID for Speewah Fluorite in October 2026, with a Feasibility Study completed in early 2026 and an ore sorting concept study running in parallel.

· Speewah Joint Venture (Sumitomo + JOGMEC): Speewah is being advanced as an incorporated joint venture between Tivan, Japan's Sumitomo Corporation, and JOGMEC (Japan Organisation for Metals and Energy Security), aligning the project directly with Japanese critical mineral supply chain priorities.

· Timor-Leste Copper-Gold JV (Murak Rai): Tivan signed binding agreements in May 2026 with Timorese state-owned miner Murak Rai Timor EP to form incorporated joint ventures over the Baucau and Ossu Projects, with Tivan holding an 80% initial stake and Murak Rai carrying a free-carried 20% until DFS completion.

· Near-Term Roadmap (1–2 Years): Key milestones include feasibility study completion, FID announcement at Speewah, and project financing.

Breaking down the principal reasons for the recent price movement of Tivan (ASX: TVN)

TVN peaked at ~A$0.47–0.48 in late February 2026 and has since fallen to around A$0.30, a drawdown of ~37% from its 52-week high. Here are the principal reasons behind this sustained downtrend:

1. Classic "Sell the News" After the Feasibility Study

The Feasibility Study release was the most anticipated single event in TVN's recent history. The stock ran hard into the event reaching $0.46 on February 27 alone, with 1-year gains of 411% and the full Feasibility Study was published on March 20, 2026. Once this milestone was formally delivered and trading resumed after the halt, profit-taking by short-term investors who had accumulated on the run-up drove the stock lower.

2. The Dead Zone Between FID and Current Milestones

With the Feasibility Study now completed, the next transformative catalyst the Final Investment Decision (FID) is not expected until late 2026 (previously flagged as October 2026). This creates a multi-month "news vacuum" where the stock loses its forward narrative momentum.

3. Widening Net Losses & Escalating Exploration Spend

The half-year results released alongside the February project update revealed a net loss of A$4.9 million for the six months ended December 2025, alongside a sharp increase in exploration spend to A$24.3 million. For a pre-revenue company, rising cash burn without near-term production income is a red flag for fundamental-focused investors, reinforcing the sell-down after the euphoria of the feasibility milestone.

4. Ongoing Dilution Risk

Multiple capital raisings and new share issuances have been a recurring feature of TVN's structure. In January 2026 alone, Tivan applied for ASX quotation of over 7 million new fully paid ordinary shares, and the ETFSCapital tranching structure means further staged share issuances remain a structural overhang. Each placement adds supply to the register and weighs on the share price, particularly during periods of thin buying interest.

5. Molyhil & Timor-Leste Adding Complexity, Not Clarity

Rather than reinforcing the Speewah story, the simultaneous advancement of the Molyhil Tungsten project and the Timor-Leste copper-gold licences has diluted the investment thesis for some investors. The Molyhil Scoping Study (April 28) and NT Government Control Group announcement (April 29) produced a +8% spike followed immediately by a reversal, suggesting the market is uncertain how to value the multi-asset portfolio at this stage of development.

Risks Still Ahead

· Execution risk across multiple simultaneous projects (Speewah, Molyhil, Timor-Leste).

· Capital requirements for development-stage assets.

· Low liquidity periods typical of small-cap ASX explorers.

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Technical Analysis of Tivan (ASX: TVN)

Source: TradingView

Price action

TVN remains in a pullback phase after its earlier strong rally, and recent candles show lower highs with price struggling to reclaim momentum above the mid-range resistance area. The current setup looks neutral-to-bearish in the short term unless buyers push the stock back above the first resistance zone.

Key Price Levels

Resistance 1 (TP1) ~ 0.320–0.330: near the first orange resistance band, where price has previously stalled and reversed several times.

Resistance2 (TP2) ~ 0.370–0.375: near the upper marked resistance zone and prior swing high area on the chart.

Support 1 ~ 0.250: the upper blue horizontal zone, which is the main near-term retest area.

Support 2 ~ 0.210–0.220: the lower blue support band, which may act as the next downside cushion if Support 1 fails.

Stop Loss Analysis

We suggest placing the stop-loss near 0.19, which lies below both the lower support band and the recent base structure. This means the chart remains valid only as long as the price stays above the broader support region specifically, the red zone beneath support. A break below that level would significantly weaken the bullish outlook.

Volume

Volume has been declining and normalising since the spike seen around the March 2026 sell-off (visible as the large red volume bar in the volume panel). The current volume of 3.44M is modest and in line with recent averages, suggesting neither strong accumulation nor heavy distribution at this moment. Volume confirmation on any breakout above TP1 (~0.345) would be critical for validating a recovery move.

RSI~44

RSI is about 43.82, indicating weak momentum and not yet oversold, so there is still room for the price to test lower supports before a stronger rebound signal appears.

FAQs about Tivan (ASX: TVN)

1-What are the key near-term catalysts for TVN investors?

Key catalysts for Tivan include completion of the Speewah Feasibility Study, further infill drilling in 2026 to upgrade resources from Inferred to Indicated, additional assay results from the Turiscai and Ossu/Baucau copper-gold projects, and progress toward a Final Investment Decision at Speewah.

2- How does Tivan align with the global energy transition?

Tivan's entire project portfolio is focused on critical minerals essential to the energy transition — fluorite for EV battery electrolytes, vanadium for grid-scale energy storage, and tungsten for advanced manufacturing. The company prioritises supply chains linking northern Australia directly with Asian industrial partners.

3- Has Tivan received Australian Government support?

Yes. In December 2024, the Australian Government awarded the Speewah Fluorite Project Major Project Status. Tivan also received a $7.4 million cash grant under the International Partnerships in Critical Minerals (IPCM) Program.